“All of this coalesces into a not-totally-catastrophic forecast as to where the immunized could be headed with Omicron. Some T cells might waver—but a hefty contingent should still rush in to fight when the variant invades, as long as a vaccine or prior infection has already wised them up. We don’t, to be fair, have the full picture on Omicron yet; more data are still on their way. What’s known so far, though, looks promising. New data gathered by teams led by Sette and Redd show that most of the viral bits that trained T cells tend to recognize, including those within the spike protein, are still pristinely preserved on Omicron, with only a few exceptions. In previously infected people, for instance, Sette’s team predicted that some 95 percent of spike-specific killer Ts should still hit their mark; in the vaccinated, it was 86 percent. Similar data from Pfizer, as well as the biotech company Adaptive, clock in closer to 80 percent for the inoculated.”

The TLDR version: the Omicron variant is the most confounding of the new variants thus far, however, immunity via vaccination or prior infection (or both) will still elicit T cells in providing a substantial measure of protection. That’s a modicum of optimism amidst the nearly three weeks’ worth of fear and anxiety since scientists in South Africa discovered the new variant, with some speculation that any acquired immunity would not prohibit Omicron from infecting vaccinated (or previously infected) individuals.

While studies have not conclusively determined whether or not the new variant is “milder” than the wild type edition, the fact remains that any increase in transmissibility means that there will be an associated increase in severe disease and hospitalizations due to the sheer volume of new cases across the globe. Omicron is expected to become the dominant variant this month in regions like Europe and the UK, with the United States not that far behind.

So, what does this have to do with the business arena and vaccine mandates? Some thoughts:

• Ongoing studies prove that vaccine booster shots amplify protection against Omicron, meaning that there should be some flexibility in mandates to include a third vaccine jab. Vaccine-induced immunity is somewhat protective, however, booster shots significantly enhance the overall efficacy and effectiveness of the Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J vaccines. As Dr. Anthony Fauci recently stated on numerous media outlets: the definition of “fully vaccinated” will need to be changed to include the aforementioned third/additional vaccine jab. This will need to be reflected in the Biden administration’s vaccine regulations, expected to go into effect in less than a month.
• There shouldn’t be a rush to push everyone back to the office just because it’s a new year. Winter is an awful time for respiratory viruses, including the common cold and the flu. Even if there wasn’t a new variant of concern about to spark a new wave of infections, there would be so much confusion regarding whether or not people should head into work; a stuffy nose or sniffles would make anyone think twice about beginning their morning commute. The Omicron variant is expected to create a surge of cases during the winter (if indicators from the UK and across the world forebode what is about to happen in America), thus the continued viability of the hybrid and remote work models. Although some may argue that mandates are merely unwanted oversight by the government, the truth is that mandates are designed for public safety, not control. (And, if we’re going to talk about remote work, too, then why not say this: it should have a permanent place in how businesses structure their workforce in 2022.)
• Businesses are going to have to work harder to ensure their staff that workplaces are safe. It shouldn’t take state-mandated mask measures for businesses to understand what’s at stake here: workers are already burnt out, tired, and have had enough of the inequitable treatment and lack of flexibility. Remote options should be readily available for those workers that can effectively perform tasks from home, while those industries that cannot support remote or hybrid work must structure the workplace environment to be safe for all in-person workers, making vaccine mandates all the more critical (while also mandating facial coverings).
• If Omicron causes another winter surge, vaccine mandates will significantly boost the overall immunity of the country. As stated above, the Biden administration’s vaccine mandate plan isn’t a way for the government to execute control over the business arena, but to truly make the country a safer place to live and work. Those individuals that were vaccine hesitant before the mandate kicks in (and there are most likely millions that fall into this group) will now be inoculated in a time when a new, shifty variant is causing a sharp uptick in infections.

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Over the past several days, a new variant of the novel coronavirus came to light. The Omicron variant reflects two- or three-times the spike protein mutations that its now-infamous cousin, Delta, brought to the world over the past five or six months, and many questions remain regarding the possibility of the variant’s ability to escape vaccine- or infection-led immunity, as well as its transmissibility factor (in what seems like forever ago, the once-dominant Alpha variant was more transmissible than the original lineage of the virus, while Delta’s rampage was largely a result of its increase transmissibility combined with waning vaccine immunity).

For those of you that are interested in learning more about the ongoing pandemic from a virologist’s perspective (truthfully, it’s quite refreshing to read the analysis of a scientific professional when making business predictions), I suggest you check out Dr. Jon Skylar’s “COVID Transmissions,” which are released several times a week. Yesterday’s edition featured these thoughts regarding Omicron:

For right now, I think it is likely that vaccinated people are still well-protected. People who have received an additional booster dose are probably even better protected. If you have not gone out and gotten a booster, I would say that now is the time—provided your healthcare professional of choice agrees.

If you live in the US or Europe, Omicron is not currently the biggest COVID-19 threat you should worry about. People in the US should be concerned about Thanksgiving, upcoming holidays, and travel, which can spread the virus around the country. People in Europe should consider that there is already a lot of Delta variant SARS-CoV-2 causing a surge in cases in your continent, and that raging fire is a much more clear and present danger to you at this time. Other regions have their own unique problems, but I do not think there is currently any place where Omicron variant infections are the biggest pandemic-related worry. Most of these problems, however, can be addressed with ready availability and uptake of vaccines and boosters, and that’s what the world should continue to focus on.

So, what does it mean for the business arena? Well, the first thing to think of is that this tangle with a new variant isn’t the first rodeo for enterprises; we battled through Alpha and are currently contending with Delta, the latter of which will most likely contribute to higher case numbers due to last week’s Thanksgiving holiday. There are expectations that, if transmissibility of Omicron is even two- or three-times that of Delta, that it will become the predominant strain throughout the next several months. Does this portend a winter surge like 2020-2021? Most likely, and hopefully, not; an uptick of vaccinations and boosters will blunt a winter wave the size of what we collectively experienced last year.

However, we are seeing swift action from governmental agencies and a level of heightened concern from news sources. After the Delta variant ripped through the world in a short period of time, there is an expectation that more rigid measures will be taken to avoid an Omicron surge. International flights are banned to and from several countries, some states (like New York) are doubling-down on mask-wearing no matter vaccination status, and, the WHO (yesterday) stated that the global risk from the new variant was “very high.” Here’s how it could affect the business world in the weeks ahead:

• Initial confusion over specific details (transmissibility, immunity response, etc.) will result in reinstatement of safety guidelines. Travel bans are the first step, and we’ve seen that in spades over the past several days. Epidemiologists have warned that such bans are not always foolproof, as a stealthy virus like this one is almost certainly already circulating in countries that have not yer publicly sequenced cases within their borders. Until there’s more information regarding its supposed increased transmissibility and the effect of vaccines on the variant, businesses will be awash in confusion and be forced to reinstate mask-wearing for all workers (even vaccinated ones) and other NPIs.
• The consistent focus on “scalability” will be exacerbated. While it’ll take at least another week or two before there is more clarity on the variant’s health impact, business leaders must be prepared to scale their staffing up or down based on the colder months ahead. Many, many organizations battled with a winter last year that saw billions of dollars of lost productivity due to the first full cold-weather season in the pandemic. Hiring managers, talent acquisition leads, and HR execs should not necessarily be panicking, but at the very least ensure that talent communities and talent pools are primed for engagement until the uncertainty settles.
• There are many, many unanswered questions regarding the impact of Omicron on the economy. The S&P experienced its worst day in nearly 10 months this past Friday, but was up 1.3% yesterday, mainly due to some reports that the Omicron causes mild symptoms in vaccinated and/or previously-infected persons. While this is a combination of anecdotal evidence and very small datasets, it is nonetheless an encouraging sign for the financial market. However, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies this afternoon regarding the impact of Omicron on the American economy, the very opposite could be true. Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel stating that current vaccines could potentially “struggle” with the variant wasn’t helpful to Tuesday’s markets, either.
• The criticality of “balance” should be at the forefront of every executive’s 2022 planning. Agility has been a way for businesses to both survive and thrive, while consistent and cautious planning is what businesses have long leveraged for the sake of preparedness. The two must converge together in order for the enterprise to weather a possible variant wave; business leaders should institute robust planning for 2022 as continued (i.e., continue planning as if we didn’t face a new variant) but have not just a “Plan B” in place, but rather a series of strategies that could be leveraged if we experience a repeat of last winter. Can return-to-office plans be altered quickly and without disruption? Does the IT infrastructure support a fast move to remote work? If sales execs and other internal stakeholders have resumed traveling, is there an alternative that could work in the name of safety? Business agility promotes real-time responses, while solid planning involves data, information, and intuition. The convergence of the two is the ideal way to meet whatever additional challenges the coronavirus throws our way.

This excellent article at Medscape takes a data-driven approach and reconfirms some elements of the concern while also offering some reassuring evidence. But, the bottom line is this: there’s a couple of more weeks of panic, pondering, concern, and anxiety until the CDC and other agencies better understand the transmissibility and immunity-effect factors. A waiting game, yes, but a critical one.

Regarding the business arena, there’s a generic response, here, as well, that’s worth mentioning: expect the unexpected. Just six months ago, life seemed the most optimistic it had been since January 2020. The Delta variant upended most of those positive emotions and there’s always the possibility that Omicron can, as well. However, if there’s one lesson that we’ve learned since March 2020, it’s this: it’s not necessarily the unexpected scenarios we should be worrying about, but instead just how agile and nimble we can be to react dynamically in the face of whatever occurs over the next several months.

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