Inflation, a seemingly slowing economy, and an expected second straight federal 0.75%-point increase in its short-term rate (which would mark the first time this has happened in nearly 30 years) all point to one thing: a classic recession that would bring uncertainty, doubt, and fear to the greater business arena.
In an article by the Associated Press (linked here from Boston.com), the markers for a recession are clear yet many pundits aren’t fully embracing these as a surefire sign that a crisis is looming:
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday said the U.S. economy is slowing but pointed to healthy hiring as proof that it is not yet in recession.
Yellen spoke on NBC’s “Meet the Press” just before a slew of economic reports will be released this week that will shed light on an economy currently besieged by rampant inflation and threatened by higher interest rates. The data will cover sales of new homes, consumer confidence, incomes, spending, inflation, and overall output.
The highest-profile report will likely be Thursday, when the Commerce Department will release its first estimate of the economy’s output in the April-June quarter. Some economists forecast it may show a contraction for the second quarter in a row. The economy shrank 1.6% in the January-March quarter. Two straight negative readings are considered an informal definition of a recession, though in this case economists think that’s misleading.
Yellen argued that much of the economy remains healthy: Consumer spending is growing, Americans’ finances, on average, are solid, and the economy has added more than 400,000 jobs a month this year, a robust figure. The unemployment rate is 3.6%, near a half-century low.
The National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months,” yet economic activity isn’t stalling as much as a traditional recession. On top of this, the 1) jobs added figure and 2) an historically-low unemployment rate point to something else entirely: a recession that doesn’t feel like a recession.
With interest rates sky high, home sales are falling and falling, a much different scenario than the past 18 or so months, in which the market was incredibly competitive. Fewer home sales typically mean fewer purchases related to homes, such as appliances, home decor, professional home services, etc. This could cause a ripple effect on the economy, however, with consumer spending so robust right now, it certainly clouds any future visions of recessionary activity. Axios’ Neil Irwin refers to the current economic state as “the great weirdness,” stating:
But in this topsy-turvy environment, the Fed wants to see consumer demand slow enough to temper inflation. The report shows solid demand, yet it might not be strong enough to tip the committee in favor of an ultra-big full-percentage point interest rate hike, particularly given another reading out this morning that we discuss below. The bottom line: There are plenty of risks ahead, but American consumers are chugging along for now, which could keep overall growth in positive territory.
Alright, so we (maybe) understand it now: the U.S. could head into a recession, but maybe not…and if it does, it won’t be a traditional recession. Okay, got it. What does it mean for talent? What about the extended workforce? What about “work” itself?
- First things first, no matter what happens, the extended workforce will continue to grow…and it will grow considerably faster if we do head into a recession. The 2008-2009 financial crisis saw the biggest jump in utilization of contingent labor in history. The “pandemic era” saw another spike in utilization. The odds favor this workforce closing the gap to half of total enterprise talent within the next 18 months. A recession, even a “minor” one by the weird standards we’re currently facing, would see some enterprises executing layoffs (but not to the extent (40 million people) that we saw during the early pandemic-fueled recession of 2020), which in turn would lead to more independent talent on the market, and those same enterprises leveraging extended talent to remain competitive. All in all, growth is in the forecast for the extended workforce.
- Businesses must focus on the depth of their talent and leverage the necessary tools to help their workers thrive. A highly-skilled workforce (both FTE and extended) will help the economy grow; an enhanced output of products, services, etc. often leads to differentiation in core competition, a very strong link to businesses succeeding regardless of current financial conditions across the market. If that talent is spread out amongst many businesses within a given industry, there’s little room for those organizations that don’t value their workforce and don’t prioritize the employee experience. Can process automation enable workers to thrive with additional power via technology? Should digital workspaces be implemented to improve remote and hybrid workplace scenarios? Can we get over the digital transformation hump to ensure that the workforce blends the best of human and machine? Too, leveraging tools to reskill and upskill the workforce can perform wonders when it comes to helping workers recession-proof their positions and contribute to the future success of the organization.
- Talent acquisition over the next few months becomes a critical endeavor. This is the time for talent acquisition executives to shine. They’ve been dealing with a frenetic labor market with candidates that are seeking purpose, flexibility, and lifestyle improvements; these are not attributes that are easy to quench for any TA leader, even the most seasoned. For many businesses, talent acquisition must become more dynamic and more agile to deal with both the fallout from The Great Resignation and the anticipated ramifications of whichever recession-sparked issues arise over the next several months. Leveraging the company brand, its culture, and what it can offer beyond compensation are all crucial factors for talent acquisition teams to revolutionize hiring over these next several months.
Look for more on this topic in the coming weeks on the Future of Work Exchange.
