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How Will Omicron Impact the World of Business?

Business LeadershipGeneral Insights by Christopher J. Dwyer on

Stop me if you’ve heard the story before: the world is seemingly out of the clutches of an easily-transmissible variant of the novel coronavirus, there is talk from epidemiologists regarding the continued efficacy of vaccines against severe disease, and we begin to think the pandemic is beginning its endgame…but then, a new variant of concern pops up, disrupts both real-world plans and our overall hopes, and we’re left wondering if we’re on the verge of yet another wave of COVID that will upend any plans for a return to normalcy.

Over the past several days, a new variant of the novel coronavirus came to light. The Omicron variant reflects two- or three-times the spike protein mutations that its now-infamous cousin, Delta, brought to the world over the past five or six months, and many questions remain regarding the possibility of the variant’s ability to escape vaccine- or infection-led immunity, as well as its transmissibility factor (in what seems like forever ago, the once-dominant Alpha variant was more transmissible than the original lineage of the virus, while Delta’s rampage was largely a result of its increase transmissibility combined with waning vaccine immunity).

For those of you that are interested in learning more about the ongoing pandemic from a virologist’s perspective (truthfully, it’s quite refreshing to read the analysis of a scientific professional when making business predictions), I suggest you check out Dr. Jon Skylar’s “COVID Transmissions,” which are released several times a week. Yesterday’s edition featured these thoughts regarding Omicron:

For right now, I think it is likely that vaccinated people are still well-protected. People who have received an additional booster dose are probably even better protected. If you have not gone out and gotten a booster, I would say that now is the time—provided your healthcare professional of choice agrees.

If you live in the US or Europe, Omicron is not currently the biggest COVID-19 threat you should worry about. People in the US should be concerned about Thanksgiving, upcoming holidays, and travel, which can spread the virus around the country. People in Europe should consider that there is already a lot of Delta variant SARS-CoV-2 causing a surge in cases in your continent, and that raging fire is a much more clear and present danger to you at this time. Other regions have their own unique problems, but I do not think there is currently any place where Omicron variant infections are the biggest pandemic-related worry. Most of these problems, however, can be addressed with ready availability and uptake of vaccines and boosters, and that’s what the world should continue to focus on.

So, what does it mean for the business arena? Well, the first thing to think of is that this tangle with a new variant isn’t the first rodeo for enterprises; we battled through Alpha and are currently contending with Delta, the latter of which will most likely contribute to higher case numbers due to last week’s Thanksgiving holiday. There are expectations that, if transmissibility of Omicron is even two- or three-times that of Delta, that it will become the predominant strain throughout the next several months. Does this portend a winter surge like 2020-2021? Most likely, and hopefully, not; an uptick of vaccinations and boosters will blunt a winter wave the size of what we collectively experienced last year.

However, we are seeing swift action from governmental agencies and a level of heightened concern from news sources. After the Delta variant ripped through the world in a short period of time, there is an expectation that more rigid measures will be taken to avoid an Omicron surge. International flights are banned to and from several countries, some states (like New York) are doubling-down on mask-wearing no matter vaccination status, and, the WHO (yesterday) stated that the global risk from the new variant was “very high.” Here’s how it could affect the business world in the weeks ahead:

  • Initial confusion over specific details (transmissibility, immunity response, etc.) will result in reinstatement of safety guidelines. Travel bans are the first step, and we’ve seen that in spades over the past several days. Epidemiologists have warned that such bans are not always foolproof, as a stealthy virus like this one is almost certainly already circulating in countries that have not yer publicly sequenced cases within their borders. Until there’s more information regarding its supposed increased transmissibility and the effect of vaccines on the variant, businesses will be awash in confusion and be forced to reinstate mask-wearing for all workers (even vaccinated ones) and other NPIs.
  • The consistent focus on “scalability” will be exacerbated. While it’ll take at least another week or two before there is more clarity on the variant’s health impact, business leaders must be prepared to scale their staffing up or down based on the colder months ahead. Many, many organizations battled with a winter last year that saw billions of dollars of lost productivity due to the first full cold-weather season in the pandemic. Hiring managers, talent acquisition leads, and HR execs should not necessarily be panicking, but at the very least ensure that talent communities and talent pools are primed for engagement until the uncertainty settles.
  • There are many, many unanswered questions regarding the impact of Omicron on the economy. The S&P experienced its worst day in nearly 10 months this past Friday, but was up 1.3% yesterday, mainly due to some reports that the Omicron causes mild symptoms in vaccinated and/or previously-infected persons. While this is a combination of anecdotal evidence and very small datasets, it is nonetheless an encouraging sign for the financial market. However, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies this afternoon regarding the impact of Omicron on the American economy, the very opposite could be true. Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel stating that current vaccines could potentially “struggle” with the variant wasn’t helpful to Tuesday’s markets, either.
  • The criticality of “balance” should be at the forefront of every executive’s 2022 planning. Agility has been a way for businesses to both survive and thrive, while consistent and cautious planning is what businesses have long leveraged for the sake of preparedness. The two must converge together in order for the enterprise to weather a possible variant wave; business leaders should institute robust planning for 2022 as continued (i.e., continue planning as if we didn’t face a new variant) but have not just a “Plan B” in place, but rather a series of strategies that could be leveraged if we experience a repeat of last winter. Can return-to-office plans be altered quickly and without disruption? Does the IT infrastructure support a fast move to remote work? If sales execs and other internal stakeholders have resumed traveling, is there an alternative that could work in the name of safety? Business agility promotes real-time responses, while solid planning involves data, information, and intuition. The convergence of the two is the ideal way to meet whatever additional challenges the coronavirus throws our way.

This excellent article at Medscape takes a data-driven approach and reconfirms some elements of the concern while also offering some reassuring evidence. But, the bottom line is this: there’s a couple of more weeks of panic, pondering, concern, and anxiety until the CDC and other agencies better understand the transmissibility and immunity-effect factors. A waiting game, yes, but a critical one.

Regarding the business arena, there’s a generic response, here, as well, that’s worth mentioning: expect the unexpected. Just six months ago, life seemed the most optimistic it had been since January 2020. The Delta variant upended most of those positive emotions and there’s always the possibility that Omicron can, as well. However, if there’s one lesson that we’ve learned since March 2020, it’s this: it’s not necessarily the unexpected scenarios we should be worrying about, but instead just how agile and nimble we can be to react dynamically in the face of whatever occurs over the next several months.

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FOWX Notes: September 10 Edition

Business LeadershipGeneral InsightsTalent by Christopher J. Dwyer on

Some picked-up pieces from across the industry, which we call “FOWX Notes,” for the week ending September 10:

  • The Biden Administration yesterday announced its most sweeping vaccine mandate measures thus far in the pandemic, requiring all all federal workers and contractors to be vaccinated (with limited exceptions in specific cases). Furthermore, all private businesses with 100 or more employees must require vaccinations or weekly tests for its workforce. These measures will affect nearly 100 million Americans and is seemingly a result of a rightfully frustrated government that wants to control the wild and raging Delta variant. Expect lawsuits galore over the coming weeks, as well as push-backs from unions and similar labor groups.
  • The truth is that the Biden Administration was left with no choice; while the Delta variant has caused some vaccinated people to spread the virus, this is still a pandemic driven by the unvaccinated. For a vaccine campaign that is considered the most important and biggest in world history, only 54% of the American population is fully-inoculated. A mandate such as the one announced yesterday will hopefully get the United States to a safer place going into 2022.
  • According to Future of Work Exchange research, 64% of businesses plan to leverage workforce management technology to augment their diversity, equity, and inclusion (DE&I) initiatives, a sure sign that enterprises across the world are now considering this pivotal Future of Work attribute as a key focal area for workforce planning the months ahead. Many professionals are committed to being more diverse and more inclusive in how they think about and structure
  • There needs to be more discussion and focus on non-medical leave for working parents, especially “bonding leave.” Child bonding leave is a separate entity from maternity or paternity leave; for example, in Massachusetts (where FOWX headquarters is located), parents may “take up to 12 weeks of family leave to bond with a child,” which must be taken within the first year of a child’s birth. Currently, only eleven states in America currently offer this type of leave.
  • “Massachusetts’ paid bonding leave is late to the dinner party but a welcome guest. As an HR professional, I have seen too many low- and middle-income employees struggle and in despair to learn they didn’t have disability pay benefits at all, or only had enough for a maternity leave of six weeks postpartum. This was even more heartbreaking of a reality to me when I took my own maternity leave and couldn’t imagine having to bring my new baby to daycare at 6 or 7 weeks old,” says Caitlin Klezmer, Senior HR Business Partner at JLL. “I was fortunate enough to have paid leave far in excess of those previously mentioned. As a working mother who recently returned to work from her bonding leave, I encourage anyone who may think they are eligible to look into these benefits – birthing and non-birthing parents alike. I reserved my bonding leave for the end of my child’s first year, taking it for the last two months before he turned one. The opportunity to temporarily pause my focus on my career unburdened some of my mental load that was becoming overwhelming. This leave allowed me the guilt-free space to focus on my family, including my relationship with myself, my spouse, and my children, while also allowing me to recharge for my return to work.”
  • U.S. jobless claims hit an 18-month low, according to Reuters; this is the lowest weekly figure since March 14, 2020, which, for those keeping track, is the lowest during the pandemic. This may signal optimism that the labor market will continue to grow even in light of a summer surge of coronavirus infections. There are some expectations that the conclusion of federally-expanded unemployment benefits, plus a 2021-2022 school year that is focused on in-person learning, could spark additional growth in the immediate weeks ahead. All of this, however, underscores the fact that the “Great Resignation” is still very much a stark reality that hangs over any labor market news. There are still millions of unfilled jobs/roles, with a standoff between employers and potential candidates (many of which are demanding more flexibility and better benefits). Engagement is going to continue being a critical issue in the months ahead as both businesses and workers haggle over aspects like remote work, work/life balance, and other non-compensatory aspects. (The Future of Work Exchange will feature an exclusive piece on labor market disengagement in the coming weeks, so stay tuned!)
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An Uncertain Start to the School Year Means Uncertainty for Business, Too

Business LeadershipGeneral InsightsTalent by Christopher J. Dwyer on

This week, both of my children began their 2021-2022 school years. My daughter (eight, heading into third grade) and son (five, heading into kindergarten) waddled onto the bus with masks on their faces and and anticipation in their hearts. For both of them, and this is something that surprised me as a parent, wearing a mask is commonplace: at the grocery store, at Target, at indoor activities, and, of course, at school. For children that are similar in age to mine, there’s a constant worry that nags at both of my wife and I’s minds, and that’s that both cannot receive any of the three available COVID vaccines.

For the millions of children under the age of 12, the first few months (at the very least) are going to have to leverage the same non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) used during in-person learning last year, including masks, social distancing, better ventilation, altered activities, etc. Once one of the major vaccines (most likely Pfizer’s or Moderna’s) is approved for children under 12, the game changes tremendously. But for now, we’re experiencing increased anxiety as working parents.

This uncertain start to the school year translates into uncertainty for businesses, too (something I talked about during a recent (Contingent Workforce Weekly podcast episode). If we take a quick trip back to a year ago, many of us remember the first day of school as the first day of “remote school,” in which we, as working parents, would simultaneously pop open two laptops and start the day. We would shuffle around conference calls and video meetings, frequently checking in on our children to ensure that they had the proper modules up on their screens. No doubt that this had a tremendous affect on productivity, consistently, and morale within our roles at our respective enterprises.

A year later, none of us want to go through that experience again. However, the reality is clear: the vast majority of school-age children are not yet qualified to receive a vaccine, meaning that those aforementioned NPIs are all we have to combat infection in the classroom (although vaccinated teachers are certainly helping the cause, it still is only one vaccinated person in a room filled with upwards of 12 or more bodies). And again, as discussed on the Contingent Workforce Weekly podcast, there are major ramifications if things get out of hand and we are forced to contend with a hybrid schooling model.

Behind the uncertainty for the new school year is also a ripple effect due to the Delta variant’s rampage. After-school programs, activity centers, and daycare facilities are all dealing with their own staffing shortages and workforce issues. This extreme gap in both daycare and aftercare has a direct influence on whether or not working parents who cannot perform remotely wade back into the labor pool. Although 70% (or more) of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been restored, those difficult-to-fill positions may remain that way for some time as high-contact roles (restaurants, hospitality, retail, etc.) fall out of favor due to the increasing impact of the Delta variant.

Business leaders must approach the coming weeks (and months) with a balance of empathy, flexibility, and strategic planning in order to thrive this wave of the pandemic:

  • As always, lead with empathy first. Empathy, as stated here on the Future of Work Exchange, is the only way forward. Personal and business lives have converged in such a way that the world around us has forever transformed the human elements of our persona. Emotions are apparent at work, and work bleeds into our home lives. Working parents have a level of anxiety over unvaccinated children heading back to in-person learning. The upcoming school year is a perfect time for leaders to approach with empathy, understand where their workers are coming from, and develop a positive experience that doesn’t add to the already-rampant concerns. The talent experience is still paramount, no matter if workers are at home or in the office. Leaders can alleviate a great deal of stress by being empathetic (even more so) during the next several weeks.
  • The flexible workplace is the ideal workplace. Businesses should be used to this by now. During the more optimistic spring months, execs were tinkering with reopening plans amidst a wash of vaccination campaigns and superior weather. Although many of those return-to-office plans have been put on pause, the typical business should have no problem operating in a virtual, digital, or hybrid environment. There are challenges with remote working and hybrid models, for sure, but a few more months can be a major asset in both seeing how a return-to-school looks for working parents and a possible decline in Delta-driven COVID cases.
  • Communication is key with worried working parents. Leaders should be proactive in how they communicate with their workforce, especially during these next several weeks. Working parents, as mentioned, are already nervous enough about the health and safety of their children…they shouldn’t have the stress of what will happen at work on top of that. Managers and leaders must facilitate conversation now about what processes are in place in the event that the work day is disrupted due to child quarantines or a lack of daycare, and stick to a plan that can be executed in an agile manner. Can workloads be balanced? Should projects have additional team members that can “tag in” if someone needs a few hours to attend to their children?
  • Experiment with new and innovative work models. If full return-to-office plans have been put on hold, now is the ideal time to experiment with new work models. “Task context” is a critical piece of this strategy, and if more time in remote settings has no negative ramifications on projects and initiatives, then leaders know that a quick shift to fully-remote can support business goals. If the opposite is true, leaders should begin strategizing around how to get work done in a challenging environment; should specific team members be in the office while others are at home? Who requires access to in-office resources, as well? The months ahead are mired in uncertainty, however, enterprises can utilize this time to continue evaluating which work models are right for the organization in the long run.

In addition to the above elements, there is another notion at hand: the range of enterprise skillsets and how they can be shifted within a digital environment. Many businesses have poor visibility into their available skillsets and expertise, including both full-time workers and non-employee talent. Understanding where and how these skills are deployed company-wide can be a crucial advantage in developing new work models. Businesses that operate on a digital scale can easily push skills to where they are needed, and, as an uncertain fall looms (due to both the return-to-school and Delta variables), this dynamic approach can alleviate some of the productivity gaps that may arise if working parents experience disruption.

No matter what the next several weeks brings to the world of talent and work, business executives can act now to ensure that empathy, flexibility, communication, and innovation are at the forefront in how they lead their organizations to success during uncertain times.

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Contingent Workforce Weekly, Episode 605: As the Summer Ends, Business Agility and Flexibility Will Be Paramount

Podcast by Christopher J. Dwyer on

Welcome to an all-new edition of the Contingent Workforce Weekly episode, sponsored by DZConneX, a Yoh company. As the summer ends, the arrival of fall brings continued uncertainty to both the business and personal lives of the world’s workforce, especially as millions of children (who cannot yet be vaccinated) head back to school. Businesses will need to prioritize the “art of flexibility” as the world of work continues to evolve.

Tune into Episode 605 of Contingent Workforce Weekly below, or subscribe on Apple Music, Spotify, Stitcher, or iHeartRadio.

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Contingent Workforce Weekly, Episode 603: “Hot Vax Summer” Meets the Delta Variant

Podcast by Christopher J. Dwyer on

An all-new edition of the Contingent Workforce Weekly episode, sponsored by DZConneX, a Yoh company, highlights how summer reopenings and return-to-office plans are currently being derailed by the Delta variant of the coronavirus.

The big ideas around the summer being a time of reopening, celebration, and a return to normalcy have all been thrown into a tailspin, especially knowing that this variant results in more frequent breakthrough cases and can possibly be spread by even the vaccinated population. The question, though, remains: what does it mean for business?

Tune into Episode 603 of Contingent Workforce Weekly below, or subscribe on Apple Music, Spotify, Stitcher, or iHeartRadio.

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The Impact of the Delta Variant on the World of Talent and Work

Business LeadershipGeneral InsightsTalent by Christopher J. Dwyer on

Throughout 2020, businesses across the globe waited with bated breath for the development of a medical marvel to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Up until late year, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were the best (and only) way to stop the spread of the coronavirus. When Pfizer was the first Big Pharma firm to hit its vaccine home run, both the business and personal sides of our personas were exalted with joy and relief.

We’re now seven months into the most critical vaccination campaign in history, and, once again, the slithering coronavirus is continuing to wreak havoc. Once a “variant of interest,” the “Delta variant,” much like its predecessors (Alpha, etc.) has become the dominant strain of the virus across the world. In the United States, which just recently experienced an incredible decline in cases alongside millions of vaccinations per day, has now seen yet another sharp uptick in cases and hospitalizations due to the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant, which suggests is as easily spreadable as the chicken pox (which is, in non-scientific terms, not good). Just a little over a month ago, the seven-day moving average of cases hovered around 12,000. Today, that same seven-day moving average has hit 72,000.

All of this essentially means one thing: within the next several weeks, people are either 1) going to be vaccinated, or, 2) going to contract the Delta variant. The big ideas around the summer being a time of reopening, celebration, and a return to normalcy have all been thrown into a tailspin, especially knowing that this variant results in more frequent breakthrough cases and can possibly be spread by even the vaccinated population. The question, though, remains: what does it mean for business?

Many organizations have been pivoting and adapting for so long that it remains an easy decision on how to spin their reopening or “return to the office” plans; these enterprises can effectively continue doing whatever they have been doing, whether it’s continuing a fully-remote work model or leveraging the power of the hybrid model. In most cases, these business leaders have already have the foundational tools to weather the next several weeks. However, for those businesses that have struggled or have spent the past few weeks touting a “big return,” what should be the plan of attack?

  • First and foremost, base whichever workplace strategy on science and data. It’s too easy for executives to base summer strategies on country or global data and make decisions from there. The CDC did have a more pointed line of thinking with mask mandates, though, as it relates to the spread of the Delta variant: for individuals in “high prevalence” areas, masks should be worn indoors regardless of vaccination status. In those counties with “low prevalence,” masks for vaccinated persons can be left up to the individual. The same should apply for the business mindset with a pinch of salt: utilize the county-level, data-based approach but understand that workers may be traveling from further regions that are in areas of higher prevalence. And, also understand that with cases surging in nearly 70% of the United States, it may only be a matter of time before we’re all re-masking in indoor settings once again.
  • Safety must be paramount, no matter the strategy. It can be incredibly disheartening (and exhausting) to have to reissue mask mandates and social distancing awareness within an office after a few months of relaxed guidelines. The good news throughout all of this (as I read in a New York Times newsletter on Friday morning) is that the Delta variant’s anticipated surge in the UK never truly occurred, petering out at 25% of its estimated peak before settling back to the mean. Owed to increased transmissibility, the sheer volume of inoculated individuals, and the continued mysteries around this novel coronavirus, we may (hopefully) not experience the same type of surge we saw in the winter months (when cases were hitting 250,000/day). However, workplace safety must be paramount, and if business leaders must reissue mask mandates even for those vaccinated, or, alternatively, continue in remote or hybrid settings, it will ensure that physical well-being remains a priority.
  • Focus on empathy and flexibility as continued strategies. For some regions, working parents are about to send their kids back to the second school year under pandemic culture. For others, the Delta variant remains a cause for concern for workers that are immunocompromised or live with immunocompromised individuals. Adding in yet another layer of stress can be deficient to worker productivity if there is unease regarding a return to a physical location, so business leaders and managers must continue to focus on their empathy-led direction and be flexible in how units and professionals choose to get work done. It’s been nearly 18 months of adaptability…what’s a few more weeks? Or a couple more months? By now, we know what works in remote settings and what does not. For many professionals, even being around disruptive home life has resulted in the best possible levels of productivity and an enhanced work-life balance. This mode of thinking must cascade up to the leadership suite: continue being flexible in how work gets done, continue to lead with empathy, and, most importantly, be aware of worker well-being and their emotions.
  • Broach the great vaccination debate and stick to a plan. It has been proven that privately-owned businesses can mandate vaccinations for their workers. Before the emergency use-authorized vaccines were actually available, this was a discussion that had started to gain steam by both those who believed that vaccinations were the only way out of this pandemic versus those who were vehemently against a series of vaccines that were developed in record time. This debate has raged on for months now, with many individuals wary of the three EUA-approved jabs or downright against the very concept of them due to longstanding (and incorrect) beliefs that COVID-19 was nothing more than a hoax. With so many heartbreaking stories of younger individuals being intubated and realizing that it did not have to come to such measures if they had only been vaccinated, the scientific truth is that Delta’s transmissibility will seek out those who are not inoculated and wreak havoc. Business leaders are in a tough position: do they mandate vaccinations as a condition of employment for the sake of science and safety but risk alienating workers that do not want to be told to be vaccinated, or, allow workers to decide for themselves and possibly risk a local surge that could be incredibly disruptive to business operations? No matter the decision here, leaders cannot waffle; if the mandate is the best way to move forward, stick to this plan and ensure that workers have all of the support they need, be it time off to receive the shot, an extra day to deal with possible side effects, etc. Empathy here, as always, will be helpful in executing such a plan.
  • Above all else, the power of communication will be key. Throughout the entirety of the pandemic, one of the worst ramifications on professionals and workers was an overwhelming feeling of anxiety sparked by uncertainty. Business leaders cannot muddle through decision-making and cause panic or worry amongst the workforce. They need to use this time, especially as science continues to uncover the continued possibilities of vaccination breakthroughs (and whether those who have been jabbed can spread the virus as robustly as those who are unvaccinated), and clearly communicate short-term plans with their teams. Inform that changing environments may delay reopening plans and that the executive team is keen on science and data in designing the next wave of back-to-office planning. For workers, knowing that they will be in a remote or hybrid environment for several more weeks can alleviate some of that anxiety and ensure that they can focus on being productive.

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to throw curveballs at us. It’s a novel virus that has mysterious consequences and an uncertain origin. The last thing anyone should expect at this point is a premature declaration of victory. What’s so much different today than last year is that we have actual tools in highly-efficacious vaccines that prevent the worst possible scenarios of COVID while allowing those who are vaccinated some small semblance of normalcy.

Businesses have been stuck in a perpetual cycle of change, adaptation, and uncertainty. Looking across the country (and other regions around the glove), tourism is nearly back to where it was pre-pandemic. The global economy is nearing early 2020 levels, as well. The speed of destruction caused by the Delta variant, however, could very well result in some rigid restrictions that we thought were gone for good. However, if the path ahead, especially over the course of the next month or two, means that businesses have to pause office reopenings and stick to what has worked best over the past 18 months, well, then, they know exactly what to do and how to do it.

The Future of Work movement has long been predicated on evolution, flexibility, and change. The concepts behind the Future of Work’s core principles were ideal accelerants for a business world begging for change and progression. Delta is taking its best shot right now and flaring up cases across the world and especially within the United States. It’s certainly exasperating to go from the highs of millions of vaccinations per day to a 700% increase in daily cases, however, businesses have been resilient throughout the past several months and there should be no expectation that this will change however long Delta continues to blaze through the hopeful final months of the biggest public health crisis of our lifetime.

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