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Labor Market

The Four Things that Will Determine the Future of “The Great Resignation”

By now, you’ve heard the phrases. “The Big Quit.” “The Great Resignation.” “The Great Reassessment.” Around these parts, we’ve typically referred to the massive, massive numbers of workers voluntarily leaving their jobs as a “talent revolution” unlike anything businesses have ever experienced before. Calling this a “revolution” rather than attributing the volatile labor market solely to a continuously-raging pandemic is selling short so many aspects of what today’s workforce truly wants, needs, and, most importantly, deserves.

In December alone, 4.5 million workers resigned from their positions. In September of last year, it was 4.4 million. October and November’s stats were just as eye-opening. For nearly the past year, the Department of Labor has constantly been breaking its own records for the “highest number of resignations in a single month,” with May 2021 serving as the first solid month of The Great Resignation.

Halfway through the first month of 2022, the expectation is that January will topple those December 2021 figures, adding to an already-volatile labor market that is consistently disrupted by yet another coronavirus variant, uncertainty regarding vaccine mandates, and other market-shifting dynamics that are proving to turn 2022 into yet another transformational year for the world of talent and work.

While I’m a bigger fan of the phrase “talent revolution” in lieu of “The Great Resignation,” the facts don’t lie: tens of millions of workers have left their roles over the past nine months and there are too many reasons why to list out in a single article on the Future of Work Exchange. The focus should be on solving this, not merely talking about how disruptive it is (although this is certainly a gigantic pain to hiring managers, HR execs, and talent acquisition leaders that are absolutely struggling to fill positions, especially in certain industries).

That being said, here are three things that could determine the future of The Great Resignation:

  • The Omicron variant’s peak hitting rural America, the South, and pieces of both the Midwest and the West Coast. There are optimistic signs that Omicron is peaking in the Northeast (where I call home in Boston), New York, Washington D.C., etc. Many of the jobs quit over the past year have been in industries that have shouldered the brunt of the pandemic’s worst, whether it’s in retail, healthcare, hospitality, etc. These are positions that are not, unfortunately, prone to flexibility, safer worker conditions, and competitive compensation. The constant rollercoaster effect of the pandemic’s surges and waves have meant that workers cannot appropriately support remote learning when it was the only option, cannot work due to a lack of daycare, and are often forced into working conditions that aren’t equipped with the best PPE or vaccine and mask mandates. If Omicron is truly as mild as scientists indicate, and if this is the last stop on the road to endemicity, then the regions that aren’t peaking with Omicron will soon, and that could mean (given the speed at which this variant’s cases cause and respectively fall) that, by the spring months, the country will be in a much, much better place than it is now for public health and safety.
  • Business leaders finally realizing that aspects such as empathy, culture, and flexibility aren’t just “nice-to-have” elements. We’ve covered it here before on the Future of Work Exchange; some well-known business leaders touting their dismissal of remote and hybrid work, and only revealing that they have no clue that, of course, business culture evolves. Major labor market shifts (in pre-pandemic times) were because of economical and financial reasons; although huge increases in unemployment would certainly cause personal distress, the major difference over the past two years is that workers were faced with uncertainty, anxiety, and stress at both the professional and personal levels. Thus, workers require some level of emotional support as well as an optimistic, positive, and inclusive workplace culture. The “flexibility” problem is simple: bake remote and hybrid work into the very fabric of every position that can support it (and make these flexibility-driven changes permanent!).
  • Inflation becoming too much of a financial burden. The inflation problem is real. Everything from cars to diapers to produce are several percentage points more expensive now than there were just a couple of years ago. For some individuals, this may not be an issue, however, for many more, it’s incredibly disruptive. Many workers hit “pause” on their careers in the spirit of finding happiness, satisfaction, and prosperity. Those dreams are squashed very quickly when household necessities cost 5% or 10% more than they did a year or two ago. Look for more workers to find positions that may check several (but not all) of their ideal workplace boxes until the economy is less inflated than it is today.
  • Businesses that lead with innovative talent acquisition models, including direct sourcing and AI-driven talent analytics, will fare better than other organizations. Artificial intelligence-led decision-making. Hiring managers with access to vast data oceans. Automated referral campaigns and digital recruitment marketing. The power of “Direct Sourcing 2.0” strategies. These are all innovative approaches towards finding the best-fit candidates; as businesses begin to harness the power of advanced talent acquisition solutions, combined with the benefits of AI-fueled data and predictive analytics, they will create the ideal environment in which to find, engage, and source the best-fit talent when, where, and how it is needed most. Too, the value of the remote and hybrid work models and their impact on talent acquisition cannot be understated; there is an increase in the availability of remote positions, and with business leaders expanding roles to those across the globe (instead of just their backyard), they are opening new channels of talent that can work from anywhere.
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FOWX Notes: January 14 Edition

Some picked-up pieces, news, and insights from across the evolving world of talent and work:

  • The Supreme Court squashed the Biden administration’s vaccine mandate yesterday. Well, technically, the Court rejected OSHA’s mandate, which would have forced private businesses with over 100 employees to mandate vaccinations for workers (for workers that do not comply, weekly testing was required). This is a huge blow to the Biden administration’s latest tactic to combat the pandemic; in essence, the vaccine mandate would have boosted the United States’ overall vaccination percentage over the next several weeks. Biden encouraged privately-held employers to move forward with vaccine mandates in lieu of the court’s decision.
  • The United States added close to 200,000 jobs in December 2021, a “softer” figure than original estimates. Wall Street expected double that figure, however, the positive news is that the nationwide unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, better than the anticipated 4.1% (and much better than the 4.2% rate in November). Omicron would be the most likely culprit for the shortcoming in jobs added, mainly due to hesitancy on the part of many businesses to fill positions as cases were skyrocketing so quickly. If Boston’s latest wastewater analysis is any indicator, cases could be peaking in the Northeast U.S. (although hospitalizations and severe outcomes lag behind these figures), but won’t peak in other parts of the country for at least another couple of weeks.
  • Rapid COVID testing reveals inequities between FTEs and non-employee workers. Interesting article in The New York Times this week regarding large enterprises getting ahead of the government and securing millions of at-home and rapid COVID tests for their workers (even if many of them are pushing out return-to-office plans). Even though there is a clear demarcation between contingent and FTE workers due to compliance ramifications, the pandemic is one area (and workplace health and safety the other) that there needs to be some softening of the gray area between the two. At Google, it has been reported that employees have access to rapid at-home testing, while contractors and contingent workers must leverage PCR testing, which takes longer to derive results. With Google’s extended workforce to be estimated at roughly half of its total talent, this is a major issue for contingent workforce equity.
  • Bullhorn acquired candidate experience and onboarding platform Able this week. A longtime Bullhorn Marketplace partner, Able is a unique platform that offers candidate engagement, candidate experience, and enhanced onboarding functionality. This acquisition will allow Bullhorn’s staffing supplier client base to leverage candidate experience automation and improve overall talent attraction.
  • The Future of Work Exchange meets the World Staffing Summit. Big thanks to Jan Jedlinksi of Candidately for hosting me (and Future of Work Exchange research) on two panels at this month’s exciting World Staffing Summit.

Don’t forget to register for the exclusive WorkLLama and Future of Work Exchange webcast, The Age of Direct Sourcing 2.0, as well. Lots of great insights into the evolving world of direct sourcing and guidance on how businesses can drive enhanced value from “Direct Sourcing 2.0” initiatives and automation.

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The “Age of the Worker” Still Has Too Many Disparities

Across the world of talent and work, there are many factors in play that reflect perhaps the most volatile job market we have experienced in business history. The Great Recession of 2008-2009 brought a swift tumble to the labor pool, however, the economic recovery began relatively quickly and “only” hit a peak of 10.6% unemployment (in January 2010). Comparatively, in April 2020, during the earliest and perhaps the most confounding times of the COVID-19 pandemic, the unemployment rate hovered around 14.7% (and considered higher in some circles given the panic and confusion around that period of time).

For all of the horror, unspeakable challenges, and both personal and professional disruptions that we all have faced over the past eighteen months, the labor market’s initial plunge was only the beginning of a series of major issues for the workforce that continue to this day.

In September, U.S. businesses only added 194,000 new jobs, a figure that shocked economists and labor market analysts alike. In addition, however, the true unemployment rate hit 4.8% in September; while this figure may seem like somewhat of a positive note amidst a weak rate of added positions, it’s really just hiding the many disparities that remain across today’s total workforce. And if we really want to dig deeper into how the lowest unemployment rate of the pandemic thus far just masks massive inequalities, there’s another stat that should shake business leaders to the core:

In September alone, 309,000 women (above the age of 20) dropped out of the workforce, according to the U.S. Labor Department. 309,000.

No, that is not a typo. 309,000 talented and hardworking women left the labor market within a 30-day span. That’s 309,000 women who are not part of a so-called “Age of the Worker.” These are women who are hitting pause on their careers due to factors way beyond their control.

Unemployment is low. The economy is thriving despite a Delta variant surge. One miraculous coronavirus vaccine has been approved and in use as a booster, with the two other major shots on their way. However, these same disparities in job growth are also occurring in other segments, such as in black men and both black and Hispanic women.

What is happening here?

The main problem is this: no matter how great the economy looks and no matter how low unemployment rates are, there is a foundational gap between 1) what we conceive the workforce to look like, and, 2) what that actual workforce looks like when broken out into gender, race, and cultural background, due to continued uncertainty in peripheral areas of the market that have a ripple effect on working mothers and people of color.

As we discussed previously here on the Future of Work Exchange, any level of uncertainty in the world of working parents is catastrophic. Any new COVID cluster in a school that eschews masks and precautions forces those parents to pause their professional lives and attend to remote learning. The continued shortage of staffing within daycare and pre-kindergarten facilities is astounding; too many working parents are having to make the difficult choice between their business personas and their roles as parents of young children.

Two years ago, if a third-grader woke up in the morning with a sore throat and runny nose, a parent could chalk it up to seasonal allergies or the common cold and send him/her off to class without a worry. Today, quarantining is disruptive and COVID testing can cause massive delays in a return to the live classroom. While some educational departments are leveraging “Test and Stay” models that enable quicker returns if children are asymptomatic, there are tens of thousands more that are not.

Those workers that are “between” pre-pandemic careers and a more settled return to the workforce are unsure of what is on the horizon. There’s no crystal ball that will tell them if the coming fall and winter seasons will spark yet another COVID surge. Millions of workers that were once toiling in more blue-collar-oriented positions are reevaluating their careers entirely, fighting as hard as they can for better pay, safer working conditions, and more flexibility in how they work before returning to work. Unfortunately, gender- and race-led disparities are caught in the middle of all of this and are suffering as a result.

So, what’s the answer here? It’s not so simple. The fact that organizations have implemented new diversity-led measures for gender diversity (82% of businesses are currently implementing these measures, according to FOWX research), cultural diversity (72%), and generational diversity (65%) speaks volumes about where businesses want to be, however, the hard truth is that they just aren’t there yet…and it’s going to take some time.

There are reasons to be both optimistic and pessimistic. COVID vaccines from Pfizer for 5-to-11-year-olds could be only weeks away, helping to curb some safety concerns regarding live and in-person learning. Not all of those 309,000 women that exited the workforce will remain out of the workforce permanently; between digital staffing outlets (such as The Mom Project) that promote on-demand and diverse talent, and the hiring managers that truly understand that a diverse and inclusive workplace culture is the best culture to build deeper talent pools, things can and certainly will change.

However, if there’s anything we’ve learned over the past eighteen months, it’s that planning for just a few months ahead causes nothing but disappointment in eventual retrospect. Businesses could stand pat in their months-long standoff with workers that are clamoring for enhanced pay, benefits, and working conditions. More COVID hotspots around the country could exacerbate the workforce inequalities that we’ve been facing since March 2020.

The question remains, though: will the “Age of the Worker” truly help those that aren’t just leaving the workforce because of culture or flexibility issues, but rather because they have no choice? The Biden Administration’s $650 billion initiative for childcare programs, universal pre-kindergarten, and the establishment of a robust paid family and medical leave program could be a boon here, although this is a measure that is months away from being approved and finalized. Many parents will choose to vaccinate their children as soon as they’re able to do so, and many will not.

Like everything else that’s occurred within the world of talent and work in this pandemic arena, there’s more ambiguity than anything else. Let’s hope it changes…soon.

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