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Omicron Will Dictate the Future of Vaccine Mandates

Business Leadership by Christopher J. Dwyer on

An excellent article by Katherine Wu yesterday at The Atlantic was a bit of hopeful news regarding the latest coronavirus variant of concern, Omicron. Wu highlighted some recent research studies regarding the role of T cells in countering the variant’s seeming ability to somewhat escape derived immunity:

“All of this coalesces into a not-totally-catastrophic forecast as to where the immunized could be headed with Omicron. Some T cells might waver—but a hefty contingent should still rush in to fight when the variant invades, as long as a vaccine or prior infection has already wised them up. We don’t, to be fair, have the full picture on Omicron yet; more data are still on their way. What’s known so far, though, looks promising. New data gathered by teams led by Sette and Redd show that most of the viral bits that trained T cells tend to recognize, including those within the spike protein, are still pristinely preserved on Omicron, with only a few exceptions. In previously infected people, for instance, Sette’s team predicted that some 95 percent of spike-specific killer Ts should still hit their mark; in the vaccinated, it was 86 percent. Similar data from Pfizer, as well as the biotech company Adaptive, clock in closer to 80 percent for the inoculated.”

The TLDR version: the Omicron variant is the most confounding of the new variants thus far, however, immunity via vaccination or prior infection (or both) will still elicit T cells in providing a substantial measure of protection. That’s a modicum of optimism amidst the nearly three weeks’ worth of fear and anxiety since scientists in South Africa discovered the new variant, with some speculation that any acquired immunity would not prohibit Omicron from infecting vaccinated (or previously infected) individuals.

While studies have not conclusively determined whether or not the new variant is “milder” than the wild type edition, the fact remains that any increase in transmissibility means that there will be an associated increase in severe disease and hospitalizations due to the sheer volume of new cases across the globe. Omicron is expected to become the dominant variant this month in regions like Europe and the UK, with the United States not that far behind.

So, what does this have to do with the business arena and vaccine mandates? Some thoughts:

  • Ongoing studies prove that vaccine booster shots amplify protection against Omicron, meaning that there should be some flexibility in mandates to include a third vaccine jab. Vaccine-induced immunity is somewhat protective, however, booster shots significantly enhance the overall efficacy and effectiveness of the Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J vaccines. As Dr. Anthony Fauci recently stated on numerous media outlets: the definition of “fully vaccinated” will need to be changed to include the aforementioned third/additional vaccine jab. This will need to be reflected in the Biden administration’s vaccine regulations, expected to go into effect in less than a month.
  • There shouldn’t be a rush to push everyone back to the office just because it’s a new year. Winter is an awful time for respiratory viruses, including the common cold and the flu. Even if there wasn’t a new variant of concern about to spark a new wave of infections, there would be so much confusion regarding whether or not people should head into work; a stuffy nose or sniffles would make anyone think twice about beginning their morning commute. The Omicron variant is expected to create a surge of cases during the winter (if indicators from the UK and across the world forebode what is about to happen in America), thus the continued viability of the hybrid and remote work models. Although some may argue that mandates are merely unwanted oversight by the government, the truth is that mandates are designed for public safety, not control. (And, if we’re going to talk about remote work, too, then why not say this: it should have a permanent place in how businesses structure their workforce in 2022.)
  • Businesses are going to have to work harder to ensure their staff that workplaces are safe. It shouldn’t take state-mandated mask measures for businesses to understand what’s at stake here: workers are already burnt out, tired, and have had enough of the inequitable treatment and lack of flexibility. Remote options should be readily available for those workers that can effectively perform tasks from home, while those industries that cannot support remote or hybrid work must structure the workplace environment to be safe for all in-person workers, making vaccine mandates all the more critical (while also mandating facial coverings).
  • If Omicron causes another winter surge, vaccine mandates will significantly boost the overall immunity of the country. As stated above, the Biden administration’s vaccine mandate plan isn’t a way for the government to execute control over the business arena, but to truly make the country a safer place to live and work. Those individuals that were vaccine hesitant before the mandate kicks in (and there are most likely millions that fall into this group) will now be inoculated in a time when a new, shifty variant is causing a sharp uptick in infections.
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How Will Omicron Impact the World of Business?

Business LeadershipGeneral Insights by Christopher J. Dwyer on

Stop me if you’ve heard the story before: the world is seemingly out of the clutches of an easily-transmissible variant of the novel coronavirus, there is talk from epidemiologists regarding the continued efficacy of vaccines against severe disease, and we begin to think the pandemic is beginning its endgame…but then, a new variant of concern pops up, disrupts both real-world plans and our overall hopes, and we’re left wondering if we’re on the verge of yet another wave of COVID that will upend any plans for a return to normalcy.

Over the past several days, a new variant of the novel coronavirus came to light. The Omicron variant reflects two- or three-times the spike protein mutations that its now-infamous cousin, Delta, brought to the world over the past five or six months, and many questions remain regarding the possibility of the variant’s ability to escape vaccine- or infection-led immunity, as well as its transmissibility factor (in what seems like forever ago, the once-dominant Alpha variant was more transmissible than the original lineage of the virus, while Delta’s rampage was largely a result of its increase transmissibility combined with waning vaccine immunity).

For those of you that are interested in learning more about the ongoing pandemic from a virologist’s perspective (truthfully, it’s quite refreshing to read the analysis of a scientific professional when making business predictions), I suggest you check out Dr. Jon Skylar’s “COVID Transmissions,” which are released several times a week. Yesterday’s edition featured these thoughts regarding Omicron:

For right now, I think it is likely that vaccinated people are still well-protected. People who have received an additional booster dose are probably even better protected. If you have not gone out and gotten a booster, I would say that now is the time—provided your healthcare professional of choice agrees.

If you live in the US or Europe, Omicron is not currently the biggest COVID-19 threat you should worry about. People in the US should be concerned about Thanksgiving, upcoming holidays, and travel, which can spread the virus around the country. People in Europe should consider that there is already a lot of Delta variant SARS-CoV-2 causing a surge in cases in your continent, and that raging fire is a much more clear and present danger to you at this time. Other regions have their own unique problems, but I do not think there is currently any place where Omicron variant infections are the biggest pandemic-related worry. Most of these problems, however, can be addressed with ready availability and uptake of vaccines and boosters, and that’s what the world should continue to focus on.

So, what does it mean for the business arena? Well, the first thing to think of is that this tangle with a new variant isn’t the first rodeo for enterprises; we battled through Alpha and are currently contending with Delta, the latter of which will most likely contribute to higher case numbers due to last week’s Thanksgiving holiday. There are expectations that, if transmissibility of Omicron is even two- or three-times that of Delta, that it will become the predominant strain throughout the next several months. Does this portend a winter surge like 2020-2021? Most likely, and hopefully, not; an uptick of vaccinations and boosters will blunt a winter wave the size of what we collectively experienced last year.

However, we are seeing swift action from governmental agencies and a level of heightened concern from news sources. After the Delta variant ripped through the world in a short period of time, there is an expectation that more rigid measures will be taken to avoid an Omicron surge. International flights are banned to and from several countries, some states (like New York) are doubling-down on mask-wearing no matter vaccination status, and, the WHO (yesterday) stated that the global risk from the new variant was “very high.” Here’s how it could affect the business world in the weeks ahead:

  • Initial confusion over specific details (transmissibility, immunity response, etc.) will result in reinstatement of safety guidelines. Travel bans are the first step, and we’ve seen that in spades over the past several days. Epidemiologists have warned that such bans are not always foolproof, as a stealthy virus like this one is almost certainly already circulating in countries that have not yer publicly sequenced cases within their borders. Until there’s more information regarding its supposed increased transmissibility and the effect of vaccines on the variant, businesses will be awash in confusion and be forced to reinstate mask-wearing for all workers (even vaccinated ones) and other NPIs.
  • The consistent focus on “scalability” will be exacerbated. While it’ll take at least another week or two before there is more clarity on the variant’s health impact, business leaders must be prepared to scale their staffing up or down based on the colder months ahead. Many, many organizations battled with a winter last year that saw billions of dollars of lost productivity due to the first full cold-weather season in the pandemic. Hiring managers, talent acquisition leads, and HR execs should not necessarily be panicking, but at the very least ensure that talent communities and talent pools are primed for engagement until the uncertainty settles.
  • There are many, many unanswered questions regarding the impact of Omicron on the economy. The S&P experienced its worst day in nearly 10 months this past Friday, but was up 1.3% yesterday, mainly due to some reports that the Omicron causes mild symptoms in vaccinated and/or previously-infected persons. While this is a combination of anecdotal evidence and very small datasets, it is nonetheless an encouraging sign for the financial market. However, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies this afternoon regarding the impact of Omicron on the American economy, the very opposite could be true. Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel stating that current vaccines could potentially “struggle” with the variant wasn’t helpful to Tuesday’s markets, either.
  • The criticality of “balance” should be at the forefront of every executive’s 2022 planning. Agility has been a way for businesses to both survive and thrive, while consistent and cautious planning is what businesses have long leveraged for the sake of preparedness. The two must converge together in order for the enterprise to weather a possible variant wave; business leaders should institute robust planning for 2022 as continued (i.e., continue planning as if we didn’t face a new variant) but have not just a “Plan B” in place, but rather a series of strategies that could be leveraged if we experience a repeat of last winter. Can return-to-office plans be altered quickly and without disruption? Does the IT infrastructure support a fast move to remote work? If sales execs and other internal stakeholders have resumed traveling, is there an alternative that could work in the name of safety? Business agility promotes real-time responses, while solid planning involves data, information, and intuition. The convergence of the two is the ideal way to meet whatever additional challenges the coronavirus throws our way.

This excellent article at Medscape takes a data-driven approach and reconfirms some elements of the concern while also offering some reassuring evidence. But, the bottom line is this: there’s a couple of more weeks of panic, pondering, concern, and anxiety until the CDC and other agencies better understand the transmissibility and immunity-effect factors. A waiting game, yes, but a critical one.

Regarding the business arena, there’s a generic response, here, as well, that’s worth mentioning: expect the unexpected. Just six months ago, life seemed the most optimistic it had been since January 2020. The Delta variant upended most of those positive emotions and there’s always the possibility that Omicron can, as well. However, if there’s one lesson that we’ve learned since March 2020, it’s this: it’s not necessarily the unexpected scenarios we should be worrying about, but instead just how agile and nimble we can be to react dynamically in the face of whatever occurs over the next several months.

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The Link Between Workplace Safety and “The Big Quit”

Business LeadershipTalent by Christopher J. Dwyer on

When the Future of Work Exchange launched its flagship research study earlier this year, nearly 90% of business executives stated that they expected operations to return to “normal” within six months-to-a-year. The timing of our research data collection (Q1 2021) meant that by early 2022, the vast majority of enterprise leaders anticipated a better working environment that, in theory, would somewhat resemble pre-pandemic life. That key statistic reflected the hope and optimism brought by three major vaccines that were available to the general public at the tail end of winter. Phrases such as “Hot Vax Summer” were thrown around in anticipation of a return to summer glory after a 2020 that featured lockdowns, social distancing, and, presumably, many canceled vacations and trips.

There’s an interesting angle, though, when we break down that core research data: dig a little deeper into specific verticals and industries, and the picture changes tremendously. Ninety-eight percent (98%) of healthcare businesses believed that normality was, at the earliest, two years away. Retail? 75% stated two years. Distribution and logistics…nearly the same mindset (70% stating two years to normality). Nearly 65% of travel and hospitality concur, as do 62% of those in the education sector.

An article at Business Insider caught my attention for two reasons: 1) it perfectly encapsulated an overlooked reason for the so-called “Big Quit” or “Great Resignation,” and, 2) it struck so close to home, since my wife is a 20-year veteran of the veterinary industry and has been an essential worker since Day One. Human and veterinary medicine are two industries that consistently produce close encounters, crowded surgeries and exam rooms, and nearly no way to adhere to six-foot social distancing guidelines…which means one thing: vaccinations are ever-important in businesses that rely on close worker-to-worker contact to facilitate core operations.

Retail, distribution/logistics, travel, restaurants, education…all sectors that cannot leverage remote or hybrid work at the same scale as an industry like financial services or consulting. And thus, a new trend emerges: workers resigning or quitting due to health and safety concerns. Yes, there’s a talent revolution occurring today and that is something that cannot be overstated; however, in the greater scheme of talent and work, basic health and safety should never be a reason for a worker to voluntarily leave a position. The fact that this is a contributing factor to the ongoing series of resignations across the country means that any conversations around “normality” are shrouded in uncertainty.

Lagging vaccination rates, even in the wake of the Delta variant’s summer-to-fall rampage, mean that those workers that are vaccinated could be anxious regarding their own safety. After a typical shift (or one that careens into overtime hours, which is a reality when there’s a staffing shortage), any onset of sniffles, coughing, or subpar physical feelings can set off a wave of concerns regarding possible COVID exposure. Only 45% of businesses in the Future of Work Exchange Report for 2021 stated that the pandemic forced them to reevaluate their own processes for monitoring health and safety precautions, a far cry from the bigger pressures that businesses experienced over the past 18 months, including the reimagining of workforce management and the increased need for contingent and extended talent.

It’s no secret that many businesses have never taken the pandemic seriously. And it’s also not a surprise to hear that many business leaders have been prioritizing a return to the office for months, even though caseloads began to skyrocket during the summer months and, now, after a decline in October, are beginning to climb once again. Even the most vaccinated states in America (such as Massachusetts, where I live) have seen consistently-high coronavirus caseloads, which means that as more and more businesses push for normalcy, they will be putting their talent directly in harm’s way.

A common refrain regarding unvaccinated workers and those that don’t prioritize the pandemic’s wide-sweeping ramifications is often simple: COVID may not cause serious harm because of their age and vitality, so why mandate vaccines? Why take such rigid precautions? Well, the answer is clear-cut: COVID is caused by a novel virus that was discovered only two years ago. The threat of “long COVID” or passing along the illness to an immunodeficient relative/family member should always be top-of-mind. With the way the Delta variant changed the overall outlook for the pandemic, the government had no choice in instituting a nationwide vaccine mandate that would ensure that workplace environments are safe.

So much attention has been paid regarding the worker revolution happening within the business world, with more and more talented professionals are choosing different career paths, reevaluating their existing journeys, and/or holding out for better compensation. “Workplace standards” have always been a part of the conversation but not the center of this “talent revolution” discussion.

If a worker has no choice but to commute to a physical location and interact with other people, there should never be a question regarding workplace health and safety standards. Any worker that has to come home to children or immunocompromised individuals should not have the added stress of worrying about whether or not they’re bringing a vicious virus into their personal space. And, those workers that have pre-existing conditions that could cause a severe reaction to the coronavirus must be assured from their leaders that they either 1) have alternative work options (such as remote work), or, 2) are working in a facility that promotes social distancing, vaccinations, and actively enforce COVID restrictions within the workplace.

Government mandates will soon curb some of those poor conditions in non-remote, non-hybrid industries, especially as major retailers, medical facilities, warehouses, etc. push for mass vaccinations in the wake of the Biden administration’s new regulatory policies. However, that “return to normalcy” that every business aims for in 2022? Not going to happen if talented professionals continue to leave their positions over workplace safety concerns.

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