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What Would a Possible Recession Mean for the World of Talent and Work?

Business LeadershipGeneral Insights by Christopher J. Dwyer on

Inflation, a seemingly slowing economy, and an expected second straight federal 0.75%-point increase in its short-term rate (which would mark the first time this has happened in nearly 30 years) all point to one thing: a classic recession that would bring uncertainty, doubt, and fear to the greater business arena.

In an article by the Associated Press (linked here from Boston.com), the markers for a recession are clear yet many pundits aren’t fully embracing these as a surefire sign that a crisis is looming:

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday said the U.S. economy is slowing but pointed to healthy hiring as proof that it is not yet in recession.

Yellen spoke on NBC’s “Meet the Press” just before a slew of economic reports will be released this week that will shed light on an economy currently besieged by rampant inflation and threatened by higher interest rates. The data will cover sales of new homes, consumer confidence, incomes, spending, inflation, and overall output.

The highest-profile report will likely be Thursday, when the Commerce Department will release its first estimate of the economy’s output in the April-June quarter. Some economists forecast it may show a contraction for the second quarter in a row. The economy shrank 1.6% in the January-March quarter. Two straight negative readings are considered an informal definition of a recession, though in this case economists think that’s misleading.

Yellen argued that much of the economy remains healthy: Consumer spending is growing, Americans’ finances, on average, are solid, and the economy has added more than 400,000 jobs a month this year, a robust figure. The unemployment rate is 3.6%, near a half-century low.

The National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months,” yet economic activity isn’t stalling as much as a traditional recession. On top of this, the 1) jobs added figure and 2) an historically-low unemployment rate point to something else entirely: a recession that doesn’t feel like a recession.

With interest rates sky high, home sales are falling and falling, a much different scenario than the past 18 or so months, in which the market was incredibly competitive. Fewer home sales typically mean fewer purchases related to homes, such as appliances, home decor, professional home services, etc. This could cause a ripple effect on the economy, however, with consumer spending so robust right now, it certainly clouds any future visions of recessionary activity. Axios’ Neil Irwin refers to the current economic state as “the great weirdness,” stating:

But in this topsy-turvy environment, the Fed wants to see consumer demand slow enough to temper inflation. The report shows solid demand, yet it might not be strong enough to tip the committee in favor of an ultra-big full-percentage point interest rate hike, particularly given another reading out this morning that we discuss below. The bottom line: There are plenty of risks ahead, but American consumers are chugging along for now, which could keep overall growth in positive territory.

Alright, so we (maybe) understand it now: the U.S. could head into a recession, but maybe not…and if it does, it won’t be a traditional recession. Okay, got it. What does it mean for talent? What about the extended workforce? What about “work” itself?

  • First things first, no matter what happens, the extended workforce will continue to grow…and it will grow considerably faster if we do head into a recession. The 2008-2009 financial crisis saw the biggest jump in utilization of contingent labor in history. The “pandemic era” saw another spike in utilization. The odds favor this workforce closing the gap to half of total enterprise talent within the next 18 months. A recession, even a “minor” one by the weird standards we’re currently facing, would see some enterprises executing layoffs (but not to the extent (40 million people) that we saw during the early pandemic-fueled recession of 2020), which in turn would lead to more independent talent on the market, and those same enterprises leveraging extended talent to remain competitive. All in all, growth is in the forecast for the extended workforce.
  • Businesses must focus on the depth of their talent and leverage the necessary tools to help their workers thrive. A highly-skilled workforce (both FTE and extended) will help the economy grow; an enhanced output of products, services, etc. often leads to differentiation in core competition, a very strong link to businesses succeeding regardless of current financial conditions across the market. If that talent is spread out amongst many businesses within a given industry, there’s little room for those organizations that don’t value their workforce and don’t prioritize the employee experience. Can process automation enable workers to thrive with additional power via technology? Should digital workspaces be implemented to improve remote and hybrid workplace scenarios? Can we get over the digital transformation hump to ensure that the workforce blends the best of human and machine? Too, leveraging tools to reskill and upskill the workforce can perform wonders when it comes to helping workers recession-proof their positions and contribute to the future success of the organization.
  • Talent acquisition over the next few months becomes a critical endeavor. This is the time for talent acquisition executives to shine. They’ve been dealing with a frenetic labor market with candidates that are seeking purpose, flexibility, and lifestyle improvements; these are not attributes that are easy to quench for any TA leader, even the most seasoned. For many businesses, talent acquisition must become more dynamic and more agile to deal with both the fallout from The Great Resignation and the anticipated ramifications of whichever recession-sparked issues arise over the next several months. Leveraging the company brand, its culture, and what it can offer beyond compensation are all crucial factors for talent acquisition teams to revolutionize hiring over these next several months.

Look for more on this topic in the coming weeks on the Future of Work Exchange.

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The State of Talent Today and the Future of Work

General InsightsHR by Christopher J. Dwyer on

I recently had the pleasure of joining Utmost‘s VP of Marketing, Neha Goel, on the company’s Contingent Workforce Radio podcast. Neha and I chatted about the state of today’s workforce, the continued transformation of work, how empathy and the candidate experience are altering talent acquisition strategies, the ultimate impact of remote work, and much more. Tune in below.

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When Societal Change Contributes to Work Transformation

Business LeadershipGeneral Insights by Christopher J. Dwyer on

I’m technically a millennial, however, my musical tastes are mostly skewed towards more nostalgia-tinged acts rather than the latest pop singles. I couldn’t name a single current hip-hop, pop, or country act that wasn’t around when I was in my twenties, but I could sure tell you the exact setlists for each time I’ve seen U2 or Metallica in concert.

So you could imagine my reaction to news that Beyonce’s latest single, “Break My Soul,” references The Great Resignation:

Now, I just fell in love / And I just quit my job / I’m gonna find new drive

Damn, they work me so damn hard / Work by nine, then off past five / And they work my nerves

That’s why I cannot sleep at night / I’m lookin’ for motivation / I’m lookin’ for a new foundation, yeah

And I’m on that new vibration / I’m buildin’ my own foundation, yeah/ Hold up, oh, baby, baby

You won’t break my soul

Now, I cannot imagine every single one of the 4.4 million individuals who left their positions in the month of April alone are merrily singing and dancing to this tune…however, the message is on point, for sure: a new foundation and a new motivation sparked by burnout, fatigue, and disillusionment.

This is admittedly not a pure reflection of the Future of Work, but is surely the tip of the iceberg when we think how society itself is shaping how work is done. Never before has there been so much overlap between our public and professional personas, in a time when politics, the economy, and current events are shaping how we think about work and how it fits into our lives.

I wrote recently that the COVID-19 pandemic fundamentally changed the link between us as humans and us as professionals. We were rethinking the role of “work” in our personal lives, and that, on top of other conditions (such as the need for flexibility and empathy), has caused many (many!) of us to reimagine what work meant to us and what we needed out of it.

No matter where a business leader stands personally regarding the recent overturn of Roe vs. Wade, the bigger question is: “How does affect my workforce? My people?” Thousands of very large enterprises with national followings have already made it known where they stand by offering their employees a safe environment in which to request paid leave and secure the necessary medical appointments. This does wonders for the very culture of these businesses and proves, once again, that societal change is actively transforming the way we work.

When we as business leaders and executives cultivate a positive, inclusive, and engaging workplace culture, and when we align that culture with the beliefs that matter to the workforce, new doors are opened. The negative ramifications of The Great Resignation pale in comparison to an enterprise that understands the perspectives of its staff and prospective talent.

What does this all mean? It boils down to this: “work” was once a separate part of our lives (a large one, albeit). Since the pandemic began, we saw the lines begin to blur. Economic and social behaviors changed and so did the ways we thought about work and our careers. Work means so much more than it ever did before, thus we as humans now actively seek self-fulfilling, flexible, and purposeful work. And as societal change continues to become a symbiotic element of work and business, it will be a critical attribute in how a company operates and how it is viewed from brand, workplace, and culture perspectives.

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FOWX Notes: June 24 Edition

General Insights by Christopher J. Dwyer on

Some picked-up pieces, news, and insights from across the evolving world of talent and work:

  • Beeline announced the appointment of Teresa Creech as its new Chief Corporate Development Officer (CCDO). Creech, an industry veteran with over 25 years of experience (TalentWave, Randstad, Kelly, etc.) in the workforce solutions space, will lead corporate strategy, including mergers and acquisitions, for the VMS giant. In light of the company’s recent acquisition by Stone Point Capital, it is expected that Beeline will be quite active in the M&A market in the second half of 2022 and into 2023.
  • Direct sourcing platform LiveHire and “people activation” solution Enboarder announced a strategic partnership. Enboarder’s digital, experience-driven onboarding functionality will be integrated with LiveHire’s total talent and direct sourcing offerings, providing candidates with a seamless journey from recruitment through onboarding.
  • A seasonally adjusted 229,000 unemployment claims for the week ended June 18 reflect a tight labor market. And to add to this news, another 4.4 million Americans voluntarily left their jobs in April, proving that, yes, The Great Resignation (and the upcoming Great Resettling) continues on unabated.
  • Citing 2% utilization of its offices in three major regions, Yelp embraces the Future of Work. Offices in Chicago, New York and Washington, D.C. will be shuttered by July 29, a big move for the company’s remote-first work model that was adopted 18 months ago. With record revenues in 2021, Yelp is a representation of how flexibility can drive value in today’s transformative world of work.
  • Staffing the Universe announced a rebrand to Equiliem. The New Jersey-based staffing giant, which also includes fast-growing MSP solution Evaluent under its umbrella, announced the rebranding news this week.
  • Deel stated that it plans to acquire Melbourne-based payroll and compliance provider PayGroup. Deel, which was valuated at $5.5B late last year, continues to expand its global presence with the acquisition (AUS $119.3 million, US $82.6 million) of the global payroll solution.
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FOWX Notes: May 20 Edition

General Insights by Christopher J. Dwyer on

Some picked-up pieces, news, and insights from across the evolving world of talent and work:

  • PRO Unlimited announced the appointment of Dr. Christy Dempsey to its board of directors, which is a formidable addition to the solution’s already-robust level of expertise and experience. Dr. Dempsey will no doubt help to influence PRO’s presence in the healthcare industry, where it has seen much success with its RightSourcing offering. As the healthcare vertical continues to see a stratospheric rise in the utilization of extended talent, this appointment will surely augment PRO’s approach to optimizing contingent workforce management operations within this industry.
  • Industry veteran Kevin Leete, formerly of Atrium, joined direct sourcing platform WorkLLama last week, as did former SAP Fieldglass, The Mom Project, and WillHire executive Kevin Poll. The innovative direct sourcing provider, which has become an industry leader over the past couple of years due to its unique solution set, welcomes two major workforce and staffing industry luminaries to its executive team.
  • Direct sourcing giant LiveHire announced a partnership with Viventis Search Asia. The partnership will help to advance LiveHire’s technology in the APAC region by enabling Viventis (a career consulting and human capital solution) to build and develop a truly agile and seamless ecosystem of candidates, fueled by LiveHire’s wide range of direct sourcing, recruitment, and candidate experience functionality.
  • Although initial unemployment claims increased 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ended May 14, the rate is still at its lowest over past 52 years. The Future of Work Exchange expects this number to remain steady, given that the United States business market has increased payroll by 400,000 jobs for 12 straight months. As The Great Resignation continues its impact, there will be, however, some “settling” of the labor market as displaced workers find new homes and career trajectories.
  • Randstad Sourceright introduced its innovative Services Procurement 360 solution, which is led by the company’s Global Head of Services Procurement, Paul Vincent. The new solution “reimagines” services procurement and SOW management by leveraging flexible solutions, AI-fueled intelligence, and a dynamic framework of offerings and tools.
  • Accenture’s global managing director of applied intelligence, Salema Rice, joined Opptly’s board of directors. MSP leader GRI’s former , Rice will certainly bring her vast expertise and knowledge and apply to the direct sourcing platform’s intelligence-led technology offerings.

Also, just a quick reminder that registration is open for the Future of Work Exchange‘s inaugural live event, “FOWX Live,” on June 14 in Boston. Click here or on the image below to register.

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The Future of Work Exchange Meets the “CPO Open Mic” Podcast

Business LeadershipGeneral Insights by Christopher J. Dwyer on

I had a wonderful opportunity to join Beeline’s Chief Procurement Officer, Mike Schiappa, on the CPO Open Mic podcast. In what ended up being one of my all-time favorite discussions, Mike and I chatted about “The Great Resignation” (and how it will become “The Great Resettling”), the growth and impact of the extended workforce, why direct sourcing should be top-of-mind, and how business leadership needs to be more human. Tune in!

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FOWX Notes: April 8 Edition

General Insights by Christopher J. Dwyer on

Some picked-up pieces, news, and insights from across the evolving world of talent and work:

  • Filtered and LiveHire announced a strategic partnership founded on their complementary platforms. The unique partnership will harness the power of Filtered’s unique AI-fueled assessment, validation, and workforce management tools with LiveHire’s direct sourcing technology. This union is a representation of the “Direct Sourcing 2.0” concept driven by next-generation automation and deeper direct sourcing technology to provide enterprises with a repeatable, scalable, and flexible means of developing talent communities and tapping into on-demand talent.
  • Massachusetts’ new Future of Work Commission report highlights the impact of change on the greater workforce. The 17-member Future of Work Commission group may reside in Massachusetts, however, its work in building this new report shows that work-led transformations, such as automation, new technology, and pandemic-fueled Future of Work accelerants like remote and hybrid work, are going to permanently shift how businesses operate in the months and years ahead. The Commission’s report digs deeper into the criticality of affordable and accessible daycare, and, the benefits of reskilling and upskilling workers in specific industries.
  • New unemployment claims totaled 166,000 last week, the lowest recorded level since 1968. The lowest new claims figure in nearly 55 years is an optimistic signal for a volatile labor market that is still battling the The Great Resignation and a Talent Revolution. Although most industries are starting to settle into a new business arena as the pandemic moves into a new phase, there are still hundreds of thousands of open positions in the hospitality, retail, leisure, professional services, and manufacturing sectors, which could cause continued staffing issues in the immediate months ahead.
  • Workforce solutions platform Remote raised $300 million as the market remains hot for HR and workforce tech. The latest funding round puts the company valuation at nearly $3 billion. Remote, along with platforms such as Deel, Payfit, and Personio, are revolutionizing how businesses manage payrolling, benefits administration, and other tasks that have become more difficult as enterprises shift to a more remote- or hybrid-based workplace infrastructure. These solutions enable core HR and payrolling processes for businesses that rely on the extended workforce and workers in various areas around the globe in which they don’t have existing operations.
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FOWX Notes: March 4 Edition

General Insights by Christopher J. Dwyer on

Some picked-up pieces, news, and insights from across the evolving world of talent and work:

  • Filtered bolsters its leadership team and drives $10M in funding. The Boston-based Direct Sourcing 2.0 and automated technical interview platform announced this week that former Yahoo!, HotJobs, and Jobvite CEO, Dan Finnagan, has joined the solution as its Chief Executive Officer. Finnagan will oversee the platform’s expected surge in growth in the months and years ahead as Filtered continues to win new Fortune 500 business. The company also announced a $10 million round of financing financing led by AI Fund, Silicon Valley Data Capital, and TDF Ventures, as well as appointing Usama Fayyad, Executive Director of the Institute for Experiential AI at Northeastern University and Chairman at Open Insights, to its Board of Directors.
  • Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped to 215,000 for the week ending February 26. The 18,000-claim drop marks the lowest weekly figure since January 1 and an optimistic stat heading into the end of Q1 2022. Although there are nearly 11 million job openings across the United States, there is hope that the economic upswing in the year’s early months will result in bigger job gains. However, as “The Great Resignation” and the “Talent Revolution” continue to hang overhead, we will cautiously await the latest BLS report on voluntary quits to SOMETHING.
  • Workflow automation platform Catalytic was acquired by PagerDuty, Inc. this week. Congrats to Sean Chou and the Catalytic team, who founded an intelligent automation solution in 2018 that blends efficient AI-fueled optimization and RPA-led process automation. The Catalytic platform will be an interesting addition to PagerDuty’s robust digital operations management offerings; Catalytic’s “no code” software will bring a seamless means of managing and automating collaborative, workflow, purchasing, onboarding, and many other processes across the business spectrum.
  • LiveHire recently announced partnerships with Tundra Technical Solutions and Broadleaf. The Live Hire-Broadleaf partnership, announced last week, will enable both solutions to build on direct sourcing optimization through LH’s Best-in-Class platform and Broadleaf’s longstanding MSP services, respectively. And, this week, Live Hire also announced its partnership with Tundra Technical Solutions, a union that will converge LH’s direct sourcing automation with Tundra’s talent curation expertise.

Just a reminder, as well, that Ardent Partners and the Future of Work Exchange announced the publication of its 2022 MSP Solution Advisor earlier this week. If you are interested in learning more about our deep evaluations and assessments of the industry’s Managed Service Provider (MSP) solutions market, this report is your go-to guide. Click here or on the image below to download the new research study.

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How Does The MSP Model Fit into The Future of Work?

General InsightsSolution Providers by Christopher J. Dwyer on

As solutions, they have been around longer than any other workforce management offering in our industry. As brand names, there may be no bigger logos than those synonymous with some of the largest in our space. And, as the extended workforce continues to grow in size, impact, and scope, they have evolved to meet the dynamic needs of businesses across the globe.

The Managed Service Provider (MSP) model has long been a powerful force across the contingent workforce management and traditional recruitment spectrums, offering an end-to-end, outsourced array of tailored, customized, and global offerings that help businesses tap into key staffing suppliers, standardize extended workforce management operations, and enhance the overall approaches to how talent is engaged and managed.

The non-employee workforce was once less than 20% of the average company’s total talent, as recently as a decade ago. With the stratospheric rise of this labor over the past ten-plus years, we’ve collectively experienced and leveraged a slew of both innovative, consistently-progressive outlets (such as VMS and extended workforce platforms), solutions that are actively capturing the power of direct sourcing, and digital staffing and talent marketplace offerings that enable real-time access to top-tier talent and expertise.

The Future of Work demands that business operations be dynamic, repeatable, and scalable. And, to boot, nearly half of the total global workforce is considered “extended” or “agile” in some manner. For service-oriented solutions like MSPs, the question becomes, “How does this model fit into the Future of Work movement?”

The answer is actually quite simple: an evolved model that blends traditional managed services with technological overlays for various “pieces” of the extended workforce lifecycle, combined with key integrations and partnerships with innovative platforms that address niche areas of talent engagement and talent acquisition.

One just has to look at the current landscape of MSPs ruling the day: some are some of the most mature in our industry and are revolutionizing the way services and technology interact, such as Randstad Sourceright and KellyOCG. RSR is reimagining SOW management and services procurement, as well as its bringing its unique TalentUX tech overlay to areas like direct sourcing. KellyOCG’s digital Helix infrastructure could be a gamechanger.

PRO Unlimited is advancing a “platform approach” that solves every need of the current workforce management program while pushing the criticality of data and intelligence; the solution has made incredible strides within direct sourcing, DE&I, and other key facets of extended workforce management. Talent Solutions TAPFIN is refashioning the market with a fresh approach to SOW management/services procurement and integrated, data-led offerings around workforce advisory and direct sourcing.

Solutions like GRI offer near-unrivaled, powerful, and self-service analytic modules that help clients design better business outcomes (GRI is also a robust provider of Managed Direct Sourcing (MDS) solutions).

Organizations like Atrium and nextSource are transforming how diversity, direct sourcing, and tech-led approaches can help the mid-market thrive. RightSourcing is actively helping a struggling industry (healthcare) take advantage of an evolving labor market whilst offering wide-scale support for those medical facilities that need it coming out of the latest COVID surge.

Pontoon continues to lead with its innovative service delivery models and technological foundations, while Guidant Global is building on its vast expertise, global reach, and progressive direct sourcing offerings. Even newer solutions, like Evaluent, are proving that there’s incredible room for innovation in our industry.

Tomorrow, Ardent Partners and the Future of Work Exchange will unveil the 2022 MSP Solution Advisor, an industry guidebook that will serve as the definitive guide for businesses seeking new insights on the mature MSP solutions market, allow them access to the necessary information to guide solution selection journeys, and enable contingent workforce program leaders to better understand how each MSP offering differentiates itself from the competition.

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What is “The Future of Work”?

General Insights by Christopher J. Dwyer on

The state of talent and work in 2022 is very different than it was only several years ago. And, it is entirely different than it was a decade ago. Far beyond the recent impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, major societal changes, the evolution of the worker’s mindset, the realm of innovative technology, and the shifts in talent acquisition have created a new future – “The Future of Work” – one that impacts all workers and all employers. And that future will be based in agility, flexibility, and the transformation of the modern business.

As businesses seek to thrive in these evolving times, it is critical that they base their operative frameworks within the ideal “future state” of work, one that prioritizes better business outcomes and the overall end-to-end optimization of how work is done. Ardent Partners and the Future of Work Exchange define the Future of Work as the strategic optimization of how work gets done through 1) the evolution of talent engagement, 2) the advent of new technology and innovative tools, and 3) the transformation of business standards. Businesses across the globe believe that many significant Future of Work shifts will force them to reevaluate their current work standards, policies, and general practices.

Talent-led shifts, such as worker empowerment (which is fueling “The Great Resignation”), the continued impact of the extended workforce, and the advent of new talent engagement technologies, like direct sourcing and talent marketplaces, are fueling a new era of the workforce.

The power of next-generation technology and innovative tools, particularly digital workspaces (for remote and hybrid work), blockchain, digital wallets, artificial intelligence and machine learning, digital staffing, and talent technology ecosystems, are enabling businesses with the necessary tools to truly optimize how work is done.

The transformation of business thinking, including a focus on diversity, equity, and inclusion (DE&I), developing a more flexible workplace culture and working environment, and creating an agile framework for how talent and work intersect, is a foundational element for how enterprises can future-proof work.

In the coming months and years, businesses will require a deeper understanding of the tools, strategies, and approaches that will ultimately drive the optimization of how work is done from talent, technology, and business transformation perspectives.

Christopher J. Dwyer is the Senior Vice President of Research at Ardent Partners and the Managing Director of the Future of Work Exchange. Connect with him on LinkedIn or send him a note at cdwyer@ardentpartners.com.

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